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The Inflation Beat
Q & A
Inflation Forecasting Methodologies
June 2019 US Inflation Rate: 1.66%
June 2019 Inflation's Note:  Inflation in June of 2019 continued to be tame.  Wages and weekly earnings are showing a strong gain in real purchasing power, this will bold well for Consumer Confidence.  Many investment classes have been able to beat the rate of inflation with a few expections.  Those having bought the 2 year treasury note in June of 2017, as it yeilded just 1.34% did not beat the rate of inflation.  Another loser would have been to buy gold 5 years ago when it averaged $1277.86 in June of 2014.

​​July 2019 Inflation Forecast:  Conditions are ripe for low inflation to continue on into the near future.  Loan demand is slowing and that will be a major contributer to lower economic growth and future wage gains.  It's the 1st half of 2020 that holds the most risk for higher inflation coming from costs increasing making this forecast prone to higher revisions.  A close watch on the dollar's strength Vs. other currencies as well as the producer price index is vital to foresee higher inflation coming from simply higher input costs.

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