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The Inflation Beat
Q & A
Inflation Forecasting Methodologies
July 2019 US Inflation Rate: 1.81%
July 2019 Inflation's Note:  Inflation in July of 2019 moved slightly higher Vs. June's tamer 1.61%.  Wages and weekly earnings contiue to show strong gains in real purchasing power, this continues to bold well for Consumer Confidence.  Many investment classes have been able to beat the rate of inflation with a few expections.  Those having bought the 2 year treasury note in July of 2017, as it yeilded just 1.37% did not beat the rate of inflation.  Another loser would have been to buy gold 5 years ago when it averaged $1312.99 in July of 2014.

​​July 2019 Inflation Forecast:  Conditions are ripe for low inflation to continue on into the near future.  Loan demand is slowing and that will be a major contributer to lower economic growth and future wage gains.  It's the 1st half of 2020 that holds the most risk for higher inflation coming from costs increasing making this forecast prone to higher revisions.  A close watch on the dollar's strength Vs. other currencies as well as the producer price index is vital to foresee higher inflation coming from simply higher input costs.

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